Dr Tadhg O'Mahony

3 March 2022|

For at least 8,000 years global settlement and transport planning has been defined by walkability. Transit, or ‘public transport’ based spatial and transport planning dominated from the mid-19th century, and automobile or car-based spatial and transport planning began in the 1950’s, or the 1960’s in Ireland. Recognising that spatial planning and transport systems that adopt the private car and road freight underlie the sustainability problems of transport (carbon emissions, air pollution, congestion, road traffic accidents, unpleasant urban realm, inequality, economic costs, fossil fuel dependency, obesity, stress…) is imperative. This is not something that is questioned internationally, it is a widely accepted conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (robust evidence, high agreement see IPCC AR5 WGIII chapter 12). 

In order to change course, to deliver a sustainable and low-carbon future, there are a number of key requirements:

1. Accept that policy failures have occurred over decades, and continue to occur, and seek transformative solutions to change course

2. Note that in developed countries it is about preventing the deepening of unsustainable spatial planning (stop low density settlement) and unsustainable transport planning (stop building infrastructure for road modes)

3. In developing countries leapfrog the policy failures of car-dependent nations

4. In all countries apply ‘Avoid-Shift-Improve’ as a hierarchy of measures

5. Note differences in urban and rural contexts, and that ASI applies to both

6. Recognise that transforming systems means integrating transport and spatial planning,and that this requires long-term visions over a number of decades

7. Develop these long-term visions, framed by wellbeing and sustainability, and supporting systems, not by upholding status quo (supporting preferences of minority of vested interests, avoiding change because it is uncomfortable, or platforming red herrings in the absence of appropriate evidence)

8. Build coalitions, be inclusive in participation and realign investment

9. Recognise that energy modelling relying on changing vehicles reinforces the problem

This last point on energy modelling is crucial. The need to radically reduce emissions is a major driver to correct our course, and this has led to concentration on energy and emissions models which seek to explore technological change. However, transport is not fundamentally a technology problem, it is one of systems, of spatial and transport mode planning. It is known that most energy modelling heavily relies on technology ‘improve’ carbon and energy efficiency measures (EV and biofuels), and ignores the priority solutions of ‘avoid’ and ‘shift’. The effect of this energy modelling, whether well-intentioned or not, is to legitimise and normalise a deepening of unsustainable and high-carbon transport development -car dependence and urban sprawl. This flaw in energy modelling urgently needs constructive criticism if we are to solve the deepening problems of global transport. This is even more important in Ireland, as it is at the extreme of the spectrum of unsustainable transport. 

Addressing these problems means seeking dense development, and providing the walking, cycling and public transport which enable connectivity. It means rejuvenating our urban centres rather than continuing with one-off and low density suburban development that hollow-out our cities, towns and rural villages. It means putting in walking and cycling infrastructure, everywhere, as the norm. It means considering significant investment in public transport, to transform our passenger and freight mobility to domination by rail. It means considering the investment costs of this against the significant costs of continuing on our current path. It means serious study of systems alternatives rather than relying on outdated and narrow assumptions that keep us stuck in a pathway that has proven a major policy failure.

The Irish case: have we addressed this problem?

Ireland has very limited goals for dense development and increase in active and public transport. There is no long-term vision (limited to 2040 for spatial planning and 2030 for transport). There is limited integration of spatial and transport planning. There is virtually no long-term study of systems alternatives. On our current path, it will be extremely difficult to meet emissions reduction targets (EV’s and biofuels will retain a carbon footprint in Ireland and abroad) and we will not achieve a sustainable future that addresses challenges such as congestion, or our desire to live in safe and comfortable communities.

A major sign of change occurred in June 2021 with the publication of the Joint Committee on Environment and Climate Action report on reducing carbon emission in transport sector by 51% by 2030. The Climate Change Advisory Council 2021 report noted key gaps in knowledge in Ireland. The recent Eco Eye aired on Tuesday 22nd ‘Higher Density vs. Urban Sprawl (Season 20, Episode 8) was an excellent introduction to the public to some of the issues. 

Yet the wheels of policy continue to move very slowly. We have yet to see a ‘systems approach’ take hold in policy, and time is running out. Adopting a systems approach to transport is about ensuring our wellbeing and sustainability into the future, and no more time should be lost to hand-wringing and procrastination. Every day further on this path deepens on our lock-in to an expensive, inefficient and damaging transport system. It’s time to transform our approach and how we think about transport in the 21st century.